We publish every lock — including the losses
This page carries the whole public record: the headline, the recent form, the rules in plain words, and an honest note about rule versions. If a figure isn't here, it isn't public — we don't tease numbers we won't show.
13 wins, 2 losses in the last 15 graded locks
Recent form, oldest to newest · Figures as of 2026-11-11
The rules, in plain words
- One lock per window, at most. A window either produces a lock or it's a sit-out. Sit-outs are the default — most windows never lock.
- The read has to be strong enough for the clock. The further price sits from the target (scaled by volatility), the stronger the read. The less time left, the less strength is required — the gates are tiered by seconds remaining.
- Price discipline. Under the current rules the system never pays more than 85¢ for a contract, at any read strength.
- The exit plan is fixed in advance. Sell at entry +13¢ (never above 95¢) if the market offers it; otherwise hold to settlement. There is no stop-loss under the current rules.
- Grading is settlement, not opinion. A lock wins if its side matches Kalshi's official settlement for that window. Missed windows are never backfilled; the record is append-only.
Rule versions — no pooled confusion
The 182 graded locks were not all traded under today's rules. The rules have been revised as the record taught its lessons, and each lock stays frozen under the version that produced it. Pooling them without saying so would be exactly the kind of quiet mixing we criticise in others — so here is the honest split:
| Current rules (v8) — in force since Nov 10, 2026 | Flat 85¢ entry cap at every strength · sell at entry +13¢ (cap 95¢) · no stop-loss · hold to settlement otherwise. |
|---|---|
| Earlier rules (v1–v7) | Included a conditional price cap (a higher cap only on the strongest reads) and, in the earliest versions, a stop-loss that the graded evidence later showed cost more than it saved. The stop was retired on that evidence, and the conditional cap was flattened in v8. |
The headline above is the all-era graded record, labelled as such. When we cite current-rules performance, we cite the current-rules set alone — never a blend dressed up as one.
Markets earning their place
XRP (KXXRP15M) — PASSED. 21 of 21 paper trades won, +305c net (14.5c average) on its own paper record, under the same rules family as BTC. Passing earns a market its place in line: XRP is the first package candidate after BTC, to be announced with its record shown when membership opens.
Other markets remain research until they pass the same bar on their own records. Research markets are not products, are not sold, and are not listed here with figures.
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QuarterLine is an educational information service. It is not financial advice, it does not place trades for you, and it is not affiliated with Kalshi. Prediction-market contracts are risky and can lose their full value.